The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook downward, projecting an average growth rate of 4.1 percent for 2026, with a slight increase to 4.2 percent expected in 2027.
The new figures mark a reduction from the 4.4 percent forecast issued in October 2025, reflecting a more cautious assessment of the country’s economic trajectory. The revision was contained in the World Bank’s April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa, released on April 8.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth outlook will be supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in investment. However, the pace of expansion is expected to remain uneven across sectors.
The services sector, particularly information and communication technology, finance, and real estate, is projected to remain the main driver of growth. In contrast, agriculture and industry are likely to record slower gains due to persistent structural challenges.
On inflation, the World Bank projects a notable decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, with further easing to 10.7 percent by 2028. This trend is attributed to the delayed impact of monetary tightening and improving supply conditions.
Despite this expected moderation in inflation, the report notes that poverty levels will remain high in the near term, with only gradual improvement. The pace of recovery may be slowed by rising fuel costs linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The global lender also pointed to mixed external conditions. While higher oil prices could strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position and external balances, gains may be offset by volatility in capital flows driven by global uncertainty.
In addition, concerns around policy direction and political stability ahead of the 2027 general elections could weigh on investor confidence and reform momentum. Other risks identified include commodity price fluctuations, tightening global financial conditions, and ongoing security challenges.
Across the wider region, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain steady at 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025. However, the World Bank cautioned that geopolitical tensions, rising debt servicing costs, and long-standing structural weaknesses continue to limit the region’s ability to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth.
The report highlights the need for sustained reforms and targeted policies to unlock productivity, support investment, and create jobs across the continent.
Get social! Follow us for more news
