NNPC says Nigeria is strengthening its position as a reliable energy supplier, projecting increased oil output despite global supply shocks.
At a time of global energy supply shock occasioned by ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, Nigeria is regaining its footing as a reliable global energy supplier, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) said on Tuesday.
NNPCL said the country was reclaiming its global energy standing on the back of improved security in the Niger Delta and a more stable policy environment.
But Nigeria’s improved position also came against the backdrop of the US-Israel war against Iran, which had resulted in the targeted destruction of oil facilities across the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which approximately 20 per cent of world oil supply passes, creating major disruption to global energy supply.
The national oil company also projected a moderate increase in oil production in the coming months, with crude output expected to rise moderately by about 100,000 barrels per day, despite the country’s 1.84 million bpd budget benchmark for 2026.
Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of NNPCL, Mr. Bayo Ojulari, made the disclosures during a Fireside chat at the ongoing CeraWeek 2026 in Houston, Texas, United States, organised by S&P Global, with the theme, “Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics.”
At the session anchored by Senior Vice President (Upstream Solutions) at S&P Global, Daniel Pratt, Ojulari told global energy investors and stakeholders that the new NNPCL prioritised project execution discipline and excellence, adding that they would define the company’s success in the next five to 10 years.
Speaking on the outlook for the sector, Ojulari said enhanced operational autonomy granted by President Bola Tinubu had strengthened the company’s ability to take commercially driven decisions. He stressed that disciplined project execution will be key to sustaining performance.
Ojulari hailed Dangote Refinery for helping to reduce Nigeria’s exposure to global supply volatility, stating that growing domestic refining capacity is improving energy security and cushioning the country against external shocks.
Ojulari credited Tinubu for granting the national oil company greater operational autonomy, which he said had strengthened decision-making and improved efficiency.
He emphasised that strict project execution discipline would be critical to sustaining growth and unlocking value across the sector.
Ojulari stated, “Nigeria is a destination for all the investment we’re talking about. The president has given NNPC the autonomy to be able to act on behalf of government to sort and consolidate commercial solutions that are long-lasting is a refreshing development for Nigerians.
“We’ve had almost 100 per cent availability of all our pipelines over the last year, achieved through a more strategic collaboration between the government security forces and a very innovative collaboration with the community. The solution is far more sustainable. So, we are in a more secure environment.”
He stated that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 had freed up NNPC to be a commercial entity, allowing it to compete with other private companies, describing it as a huge transformation.
Building on that, the GCEO said the first piece of that transformation in terms of restructuring had happened over the last couple of years and NNPC was now at a stage where it was beginning to transform the culture and deepen the partnerships it had.
Instructively, Ojulari said the company had been able to review the full portfolio of all its businesses, which it concluded last year, adding that this year, NNPC is beginning to implement actions from the portfolio review.
Ojulari told the global investment community in the audience, “We’ve also begun to strengthen the partnerships that we have. Again, very important for us, our best ambassadors are existing partners, the IOCs: Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Total, ENI.
“Our first focus was to get the right feedback on what is good, what is going well, what we need to improve, and so far, I think that partnership has deepened, and we’re beginning to see how we can move forward and grow the business.”
Having removed some of the bottlenecks hindering investments in the Nigerian oil and gas industry, Ojulari pointed out some positive outcomes.
He explained, “Over the last couple of months, you would have heard about significant projects that have either committed towards Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) or agreements, and disputes that have been there for several years that have been resolved, like the case of the ENI-operated OPL245.
“Those are significant projects. Recently we also heard about the Shell-operated Bonga Southwest project –$20 billion. These are implications that the international community is already building more confidence in NNPC and in Nigeria, I suppose.
“I think that’s the fundamental, but down by me, though, I would say the federal government itself, through the ministries, NNPC itself, working on its own internal structures, but also all our key partners as well.
“We have the resources, we have the markets, and we’ve built an environment that is investable. The point now is to prove it. Execution discipline is key to unlocking Nigeria’s energy potential.”
He outlined NNPC’s strategy to drive growth and transform Nigeria into a major player in the global energy market, pointing to execution discipline as the singular most important factor that will define the company’s success over the next five to 10 years.
He stated, “We’ve seen prior examples where investments and finances come into the country, but there are delays in projects. We want to be able to deliver these projects on budget, deliver them on time, and ensure that the promises of those projects in terms of productivity are achieved.”
The GCEO also hinted at the likely commissioning of the NLNG Train7 before the end of this year to enable Nigeria ramp up its gas export and domestic supplies. The $5 billion Train7 kicked off in 2019, when its FID was signed by NNPC and its co-NLNG shareholders, Shell, TotalEnergies and ENI.
While the news is being expected about Train7, Ojulari said they were also looking at expanding to the eighth and ninth trains.
With Nigeria boasting over 200 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of proven gas reserves and an estimated 600 TCF yet to be explored, Ojulari said NNPC was focused on leveraging the PIA to drive commercial viability and attract investment in the Non-Associated Gas (NAG) to increase production, accelerate domestic consumption for power and industrialisation as well as for export.
“Nigeria is essentially a gas country. We have huge gas resources, and our focus is on transforming the gas sector to meet domestic needs and export demands,” he said.
The GCEO highlighted several key initiatives aimed at accelerating optimisation of Nigeria’s gas, including the development of gas infrastructure, such as the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), the Obiafu–Oben–Obrikom (OB3) pipeline, and the expansion of the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity.
He stated, “We need to build facilities – the pipelines that take the gas to NLNG for export, and also for Nigeria and the rest of West Africa, we need to build the main infrastructure. The infrastructure is the next thing that is very critical for us.”
He praised Dangote Refinery for its significant impact on Nigeria’s energy landscape, saying the plant has reduced the country’s exposure to volatilities of supplies, cutting the country’s reliance on imported products and providing a guaranteed destination for crude.
“The refinery has achieved its nameplate capacity, and that’s a great thing for Nigeria and for the rest of West Africa,” Ojulari said
He added, “It has changed the game for us. One, it is very important. It’s giving us a guaranteed destination for some of our produced crude, as well as a good domestic supply network that we’re able to build down to the refinery.”
When asked about balancing domestic needs with export opportunities, Ojulari said, “For us, balance is a dynamic thing. We have enough gas resources to meet export demands and domestic needs. We’re deepening our domestic gas market, and we’re also looking at major industrial parks in different geopolitical zones to drive economic growth.”
With a clear strategy and a commitment to execution, he said Nigeria was poised to become a major player in the global energy market.
According to him, “The point now is to prove it. Execution discipline is key to unlocking Nigeria’s energy potential.” With the right approach, Nigeria’s energy sector is set to flourish, driving economic growth and prosperity for the country and its people.”
Other top members of the Nigerian delegation at the event included Authority Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Mr. Saidu Mohammed; Executive Chairman of AA Holdings, Mr. Austin Avuru; former Managing Director of Shell Nigeria, Mr. Osagie Okunbor; Group Chairman of Waltersmith, Abdulrazak Isa; and Chief Executive Officer of Seplat Plc, Roger Brown.
Others were Chief Financial Officer of Seplat, Sampson Ezugworie; Executive Vice President Upstream, NNPC, Udobong Ntia; Executive Vice President Gas, Power and New Energy, NNPC, Olalekan Ogunleye; Executive Director, NNPC, Dr David Ige; General Manager, External Affairs and Sustainable Development, NLNG, Dr Sophia Horsfall; Group Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr. Andy Odey; Senator Victor Umeh; and Rep Ikenga Ugochinyere, among others.
However, Ojulari’s pronouncement that Nigeria could increase oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day over the next few months remained conservative, given the federal government’s benchmark output of 1.84 million barrels per day in the 2026 budget.
During a fireside chat with Reuters, Ojulari stated that since he took over last year, NNPC had continued to build capacity, stressing that in the coming months, the national oil company intends to add 100,000 bpd to national oil production.
THISDAY recalls that in January, total liquids output, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.
In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day. The 100,000 bpd forecast is, therefore, inadequate to cover Nigeria’s expected oil and condensate production this fiscal year.
According to an analysis of the NUPRC report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.
Nigeria’s oil production has struggled in recent years, frequently falling below both its quota under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and domestic fiscal projections. The government’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd underscores its ambition to ramp up output, but actual production has continued to hover significantly lower, constrained by several bottlenecks.
Ojulari stated during the programme organised by S&P Global that although Nigeria was not in the class of Saudi Arabia when it comes to production, it could contribute to reducing the global shock brought about by the crisis in the Middle East.
He said, “We are building that capacity,” he said, though he added “we are not like Saudi (Arabia),” referring to the top OPEC member. “But we can contribute.”
Besides, Ojulari said NNPC completed a full portfolio review of its business last year and was beginning to implement changes this year, stressing that one focus is working to improve execution and ensuring projects are delivered on budget and on time, after previous delays.
The GCEO articulated a strategic shift, moving from resource ownership to resource monetisation. He emphasised that unlocking Nigeria’s significant proven but undeveloped reserves required commercial discipline, competitive fiscal frameworks, and strong partnerships.
Ojulari said deepwater remained a priority because it offered scale, was less exposed to onshore challenges, and attracted global capital.
CERAWeek 2026, hosted by S&P Global, runs March 23–27 in Houston, Texas, bringing together over 10,000 global energy leaders, executives, and officials to explore the convergence of energy, technology, and geopolitics.
